I’m trying to understand whether the traditional App Store model is starting to break down. With more developers pushing web apps, alternative app marketplaces, and direct payments, I’m confused about what this means for app distribution, fees, and user growth. I need help figuring out if this is a real long-term shift or just another temporary tech trend.
Short answer: no, but it is weakening.
What’s changing:
- Payments. Apple and Google still want their cut. Courts and regulators are forcing more outside payment options in some places.
- Distribution. On iPhone, the App Store still controls most reach. In the EU, alternative stores now exist, but adoption looks small so far.
- Web apps. PWAs work better than they used to. They fit content, booking, support, simple tools. They still lag for deep OS access, gaming, and smooth monetiztaion.
- Developer math. If your margins are thin, 15 to 30 percent fees hurt. Bigger devs push hard to avoid them.
What it means for you:
If you’re a user, the App Store stays important because it is easy and trusted.
If you’re a developer, you now have more paths. Native app, web app, alt store, direct pay.
If you’re a business, pick based on distribution, fees, and feature needs. Not ideology.
So no, the model isn’t dead. It’s turning into one option instead of the only option. That’s the shift ppl are talking about.
I’d put it this way: the App Store model isn’t dying, it’s getting unbundled.
Where I slightly disagree with @cacadordeestrelas is on how “small” this shift is. For regular users, yeah, not much feels different yet. But for developers and platforms, the strategy has already changed a lot. Plenty of companies now build for web first, then wrap native around the parts that actually need device access. That’s a big deal.
The old model was simple:
- App store for discovery
- App store for payments
- App store for updates
- App store for trust
Now those are splitting apart.
Discovery happens on TikTok, Google, Reddit, email, not just in-store search. Payments can happen on the web. Updates are instant on web apps. Trust is still where Apple/Google are strongest, and honestly that’s why the model survives.
What’s really “breaking down” is the idea that the app store must own the entire customer relationship. That part is def getting weaker.
But native apps are not going away. If you need performance, push notifications, tight OS integration, subscriptions that convert well, or just less friction, stores still matter a ton. People say “just make a PWA” like it solves everything. It doesn’t. Not even close.
So the answer is basically:
Users: mostly same as before
Small devs: still rely on app stores a lot
Big devs: increasingly route around them
Businesses: now have actual leverage
It’s less “funeral,” more “slow erosion.” Kinda messy, kinda uneven, very tech industry lol.
I think @cacadordeestrelas is right on the broad trend, but I’d push one point harder: the App Store model is not just being unbundled, it’s being politically and economically pressured from every side.
The real question is not “are app stores dying?” It’s “which parts still have monopoly-level value?”
Still strong:
- trust and security
- one-tap install
- built-in billing habits
- OS-level distribution advantage
Weakening fast:
- discovery
- payment exclusivity
- control over developer relationships
- update cadence for software that can live on the web
That matters because the old bargain was: give Apple/Google control, get access to users. Now bigger companies can reach users without relying on in-store discovery at all. If your audience comes from social, search, newsletters, creators, or existing brand awareness, the store becomes a utility, not the business gateway.
Where I slightly disagree with the “slow erosion” framing is timing. Slow for consumers, yes. Potentially fast for margins, regulation, and developer behavior, also yes. Those can change before users notice.
Pros for ‘’:
- cleaner reading if it organizes these shifts simply
- can help compare native apps, PWAs, and direct billing in one place
Cons for ‘’:
- if it treats all developers the same, it will miss that scale changes everything
- if it assumes web replaces native, it will oversimplify badly
My short take:
App stores are not dying.
Their bundle is.